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Innovations through crop switching happen on the diverse margins of US agriculture
Thursday, 2024/10/17 | 08:38:15
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Matthew M. Kling, Christopher T. Brittain, Gillian L. Galford, Timothy M. Waring, Laurent Hébert-Dufresne, Matthew P. Dube, Hossein Sabzian, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Brian J. McGill, and Meredith T. Niles PNAS; October 7, 2024; 121 (42) e2402195121; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2402195121 SignificanceDespite its central importance as a mechanism of adaptive change in agricultural systems, relatively little is known about where and how crop switching occurs. This study provides a continental-scale, field-level portrait of recent crop-switching trends across US farms, identifying strong geographic patterns in farmers’ choices to introduce crops new to a given field. A framework linking crop switching to three facets of crop diversity shows that switches drove diversification in some landscapes and homogenization in others, potentially influencing ecological and economic resilience. Crop switching was most common in areas with less agriculture and higher existing crop diversity, highlighting interesting opportunities for both policy and future research to explore drivers and effects of crop switching for agricultural diversity and adaptability. AbstractCrop switching, in which farmers grow a crop that is novel to a given field, can help agricultural systems adapt to changing environmental, cultural, and market forces. Yet while regional crop production trends receive significant attention, relatively little is known about the local-scale crop switching that underlies these macrotrends. We characterized local crop-switching patterns across the United States using the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Cropland Data Layer, an annual time series of high resolution (30 m pixel size) remote-sensed cropland data from 2008 to 2022. We found that at multiple spatial scales, crop switching was most common in sparsely cultivated landscapes and in landscapes with high crop diversity, whereas it was low in homogeneous, highly agricultural areas such as the Midwestern corn belt, suggesting a number of potential social and economic mechanisms influencing farmers’ crop choices. Crop-switching rates were high overall, occurring on more than 6% of all US cropland in the average year. Applying a framework that classified crop switches based on their temporal novelty (crop introduction versus discontinuation), spatial novelty (locally divergent versus convergent switching), and categorical novelty (transformative versus incremental switching), we found distinct spatial patterns for these three novelty dimensions, indicating a dynamic and multifaceted set of cropping changes across US farms. Collectively, these results suggest that innovation through crop switching is playing out very differently in various parts of the country, with potentially significant implications for the resilience of agricultural systems to changes in climate and other systemic trends.
See https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2402195121
Figure 1: Conceptual illustrations of three dimensions of crop switching: temporal-, spatial-, and categorical novelty. Each uses a different frame of reference to classify a given crop switch from year t to t+1 as novel or not. Two hypothetical crop time series are shown for each measure, both of which exhibit crop switching but only one of which exhibits the novelty attribute in question. An example of crop change that does not qualify as switching (an ongoing crop rotation) is shown in the Bottom panel. Each color represents a crop type.
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