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Region-wide synchrony and traveling waves of dengue across eight countries in Southeast Asia
Monday, 2015/10/26 | 08:53:15

Willem G. van Panhuis, Marc Choisy,Xin Xiong, Nian Shong Chok, Pasakorn Akarasewi, Sopon Iamsirithaworn, Sai K. Lam, Chee K. Chong, Fook C. Lam, Bounlay Phommasak, Phengta Vongphrachanh, Khamphaphongphane Bouaphanh, Huy Rekol, Nguyen Tran Hien, Pham Quang Thai, Tran Nhu Duong, Jen-Hsiang Chuang, Yu-Lun Liu, Lee-Ching Ng, Yuan Shi, Enrique A. Tayag, Vito G. Roque, Jr., Lyndon L. Lee Suy, Richard G. Jarman, Robert V. Gibbons, John Mark S. Velasco, In-Kyu Yoon, Donald S. Burke, and Derek A. T. Cummings

Significance

Persons living in the tropics and subtropics are at risk for dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever, and large epidemics occur unexpectedly that can overburden healthcare systems. The spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue transmission are poorly understood, limiting disease control efforts. We compiled a large-scale dataset and analyzed continental-scale patterns of dengue in Southeast Asia. Our analysis shows that periods of elevated temperatures can drive the occurrence of synchronous dengue epidemics across the region. This multicountry collaborative study improved insight that may lead to improved prediction of dengue transmission patterns and more effective disease surveillance and control efforts.

Abstract

Dengue is a mosquito-transmitted virus infection that causes epidemics of febrile illness and hemorrhagic fever across the tropics and subtropics worldwide. Annual epidemics are commonly observed, but there is substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in intensity. A better understanding of this heterogeneity in dengue transmission could lead to improved epidemic prediction and disease control. Time series decomposition methods enable the isolation and study of temporal epidemic dynamics with a specific periodicity (e.g., annual cycles related to climatic drivers and multiannual cycles caused by dynamics in population immunity). We collected and analyzed up to 18 y of monthly dengue surveillance reports on a total of 3.5 million reported dengue cases from 273 provinces in eight countries in Southeast Asia, covering ∼107 km2. We detected strong patterns of synchronous dengue transmission across the entire region, most markedly during a period of high incidence in 1997–1998, which was followed by a period of extremely low incidence in 2001–2002. This synchrony in dengue incidence coincided with elevated temperatures throughout the region in 1997–1998 and the strongest El Niño episode of the century. Multiannual dengue cycles (2–5 y) were highly coherent with the Oceanic Niño Index, and synchrony of these cycles increased with temperature. We also detected localized traveling waves of multiannual dengue epidemic cycles in Thailand, Laos, and the Philippines that were dependent on temperature. This study reveals forcing mechanisms that drive synchronization of dengue epidemics on a continental scale across Southeast Asia.

 

See: http://www.pnas.org/content/112/42/13069.abstract.html?etoc

PNAS October 20, 2015; vol. 112 no. 42: 13069–13074

 

Fig. 1.

Monthly dengue IRs (per 100,000 people) and longitudinal climate indicators. Monthly dengue IRs for each province ranked by latitude and monthly climate indicators for corresponding latitudes and time periods. Upper shows median values across provinces or latitudes. NA, not available. (A) Monthly dengue IRs per 100,000 people that have been centered and reduced into z scores, log10-transformed, detrended, and imputed. We imputed missing data by random draws from values of the same months but for different years (Fig. S3). (B) Map of the study provinces by latitude. (C) Average monthly temperature in degrees Celsius from gridded data covering the entire region averaged by latitude and centered and reduced into z scores. (D) The same as C but for total monthly precipitation (millimeters).

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